Northeast Monsoon Begins in Tamil Nadu Five Days Early
Tamil Nadu welcomes the Northeast monsoon ahead of schedule, with heavy rainfall expected across several districts.
The Northeast monsoon has officially started in Tamil Nadu, five days earlier than usual.
An orange alert has been issued for six districts, forecasting heavy rainfall up to 20 cm.
The Tamil Nadu government is fully prepared for the monsoon season, having completed 98% of necessary measures.
The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) in Chennai has announced the early arrival of the Northeast monsoon in Tamil Nadu, marking its onset five days ahead of the typical schedule. This announcement coincides with the withdrawal of the Southwest monsoon, which has left the state with a 20% rainfall deficit. The RMC has issued an orange alert for six districts, including Nilgiris and Madurai, predicting heavy to very heavy rainfall of up to 20 cm on Friday, with wet weather expected to persist until October 21.
RMC officials confirmed that the criteria for declaring the monsoon's arrival were met, including the establishment of northeasterly winds and widespread rainfall across the state. While the Southwest monsoon concluded with a deficit, the Northeast monsoon is anticipated to deliver normal rainfall, particularly in the Delta and southern regions, which are expected to receive above-normal precipitation. However, forecasts suggest that north coastal areas may experience normal rainfall, while north interior regions could see below-normal levels.
V.R. Durai, head of the RMC, noted that the strengthening of El Niño this year could influence rainfall patterns in Tamil Nadu. He explained that while El Niño years typically produce fewer cyclones and low-pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal, they can still be associated with above-normal rainfall. Durai emphasized that predicting extreme weather events remains challenging, as atmospheric conditions fluctuate daily, making it difficult to estimate severe rainfall accurately in advance.
Despite the early onset of the monsoon, meteorologists caution that it does not guarantee improved seasonal rainfall. Y.E.A. Raj, a former Deputy Director-General of Meteorology, pointed out that historical data from 1901 shows that early monsoon arrivals do not consistently lead to above-normal rainfall. In fact, Tamil Nadu received above-normal rainfall in only half of the years when the Northeast monsoon began between October 1 and 10.
In preparation for the Northeast monsoon, Tamil Nadu's Minister for Revenue and Disaster Management, K.A. Sengottaiyan, stated that the government has implemented extensive precautionary measures. He reported that nearly 98% of preparedness tasks have been completed, including readiness of hospitals and food supply centers. A team of ministers has been appointed to oversee monsoon preparedness, while Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay inspected flood mitigation efforts in Chennai, ensuring the state is ready for the upcoming rainy season.
