Maharashtra Sugarcane Crushing Forecast to Drop to 900 LMT by 2026-27
Maharashtra's sugarcane crushing is projected to fall significantly due to adverse weather conditions, impacting sugar production and mill operations.
Sugarcane crushing in Maharashtra may decline to 900 lakh metric tonnes in the 2026-27 season.
The state’s sugar output is expected to decrease by nearly 10 lakh metric tonnes.
Ethanol production is projected to drop by around 30%, affecting the sugar industry.
Maharashtra is facing a significant decline in sugarcane crushing, with projections indicating a drop to approximately 900 lakh metric tonnes for the 2026-27 season. This marks a decrease from last season's figure of about 1,045 lakh metric tonnes, as reported by the state Agriculture Department and an expert committee. The decline is attributed to irregular rainfall and drought-like conditions, which have severely impacted the availability of sugarcane, raising alarms about the overall production and operational capacity of sugar mills.
The anticipated reduction in sugarcane availability is expected to lead to a decrease in the state's sugar production, estimated to fall by nearly 10 lakh metric tonnes. According to Sugar Commissioner Dr. Sanjay Kolte, Maharashtra is projected to produce between 89 lakh and 90 lakh metric tonnes of sugar this season, a notable decline from the previous season's output of 99 lakh metric tonnes. This reduction in production is likely to have a ripple effect on the state's sugar industry.
Additionally, the average crushing season in Maharashtra is expected to shorten to around 90 days, down from 104 days last year, due to the lower availability of sugarcane for processing. This reduction in the duration of operations could adversely affect the capacity utilization and revenue generation of sugar mills across the state. Last season, 210 sugar factories were engaged in crushing operations, but for the upcoming season, only 103 factories have received licenses, while 109 more are in the licensing process.
The ethanol production sector is also facing challenges, with a projected decline of around 30%. Sugar mills have invested heavily in distillery infrastructure, increasing the total installed ethanol production capacity to approximately 296 crore litres. However, actual production and sales will depend on the availability of raw materials, government procurement policies, and demand from oil marketing companies (OMCs). National ethanol demand is estimated at around 1,100 crore litres, with Maharashtra contributing approximately 100 crore to 120 crore litres.
As approximately 9% of sugar is diverted annually for ethanol production, the current procurement policy restrictions on ethanol derived from sugarcane juice, syrup, and B-heavy molasses are likely to limit feedstock options for manufacturers. Consequently, sugar mills may increasingly rely on C-heavy molasses and grain-based feedstocks for ethanol production. The combination of reduced sugarcane availability and policy constraints could exert pressure on distillery operations and impact the returns on investments made by mills in ethanol manufacturing facilities.
