Maharashtra Faces 19% Monsoon Deficit Amid El Niño Threat
Maharashtra's monsoon deficit raises alarms over water security and crop stress as El Niño looms, potentially leading to a warmer winter.
Maharashtra recorded a 19% shortfall in monsoon rainfall, impacting 19 districts.
El Niño could lead to warmer-than-normal winter conditions, affecting agricultural productivity.
Drought has been declared in Maharashtra, with 75% of the state reportedly affected.
Maharashtra is grappling with a significant 19% deficit in monsoon rainfall, raising serious concerns about water security and agricultural productivity. The state received just 804.4mm of rain from June to September, falling short of the normal 994.5mm. Among its 36 districts, Marathwada experienced the most severe impact, with a staggering 39% deficit, while Vidarbha followed closely with a 27% shortfall. The Konkan region, however, showed relative resilience, with only one district reporting deficient rainfall.
The repercussions of this rainfall deficit are likely to extend into the upcoming rabi crop cycle, as reduced soil moisture and stressed reservoirs will necessitate increased irrigation. In Mumbai and its metropolitan area, the availability of water will hinge on reservoir levels and subsequent inflows. A recent analysis from Climate Trends indicates that Maharashtra is one of five states, including Telangana and Karnataka, to declare drought, with claims that 75% of the state is affected pending verification against government notifications.
Data from the Central Water Commission reveals that as of October 8, live storage in 178 monitored reservoirs was at 78.71% of last year's levels and 87.08% of normal. The western region's storage was slightly better at 82.42% of its normal capacity. Nationally, rice acreage has decreased by 15.56 lakh hectares compared to the previous year, with Maharashtra seeing a reduction of 1.15 lakh hectares. While there is a shift towards less water-intensive crops like pulses and oilseeds, this does not guarantee a reduction in overall production losses.
The broader implications of the monsoon deficit are evident across India, which ended the season with a 13% rainfall shortfall, marking the weakest performance in a decade. Regions such as East and Northeast India reported their lowest monsoon totals since 1901. States like Bihar, Assam, and Karnataka also faced significant rainfall deficits, exacerbating the agricultural crisis.
Looking ahead, the likelihood of a strong El Niño event raises concerns about a warmer winter, with forecasts suggesting below-normal winter rainfall and above-average temperatures across much of India. The food grain production target for 2026-27 is set at 373.93 million tonnes, which is lower than the previous year's estimates. Experts emphasize the need for improved early-warning systems and public health preparedness to mitigate the impacts of climate stress in Maharashtra, where safeguarding water supplies and supporting farmers will be crucial in the coming months.
